Evidence and belief

Garden theme 01

What changes when evidence meets criteria, priors, persuasion, or a rating scale?

Published

The denominator changes the story

Why counts and population rates can produce different rankings, and what neither measure can establish alone.

Note · 2026

Published

A worked example showing how decision thresholds change responses without changing fixed discriminability.

Note · 2026

Published

Publication-ready visualizations for ordinal cumulative models, framed in signal detection theory terms.

Project · 2026

Published

A Bayesian view of polling and the uncertainty around a US presidential election.

Article · 2025

Published

Mixed-effects linear models and generalized linear models, continued from the Bayesian modeling series.

Article · 2024

Published

An introduction to Bayesian modeling for psychologists, with an emphasis on updating statistical skills.

Article · 2024

Published

When different interpretations of probability disagree about what p-values mean.

Article · 2023